In a current video by famend cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, ominous predictions for Bitcoin efficiency in September have emerged. Cowen, recognized for his data-driven method to cryptocurrency evaluation, shared his insights concerning Bitcoin’s historic efficiency in September and its potential trajectory for the present yr.
Cowen acknowledged that September has historically been a difficult month for BTC, usually characterised by damaging worth actions. He emphasised that whereas historic developments recommend a purple month for Bitcoin in September, there aren’t any ensures, and occasional inexperienced September does happen.
The analyst highlighted that Bitcoin had skilled six consecutive purple September from 2017 to 2022. The common return for Bitcoin in September has traditionally been round -6.6%, with a regular deviation that provides to the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency’s efficiency.
Inspecting Potential Worth Declines
Cowen then delved into the potential worth decline for Bitcoin in September. Given Bitcoin’s opening worth of just under $26,000 for the month, a 7% lower would carry its worth to roughly $24,000. He additional identified that within the pre-halving yr of 2019, Bitcoin witnessed a 14% drop in September, doubtlessly pushing its worth all the way down to $22,000.
To bolster his argument, Cowen referred to a current tweet wherein he speculated a considerable probability of Bitcoin reaching $23,000 in September. Though he confused that this prediction is way from a assure, he underscored the seasonal sample, the downward momentum, and the current month-to-month shut beneath sure help ranges as elements that make a dip to $23,000 believable.
Furthermore, Cowen mentioned the common returns in all pre-halving years for the month, revealing a drop of roughly 17.7%, which might end in Bitcoin buying and selling at round $21,500 if historical past repeats itself.
On August’s efficiency, Cowen famous that Bitcoin had already skilled a ten% drop. Whereas August’s long-term common is roughly 21%, averaging solely the final two pre-halving years (2015 and 2019) suggests a extra modest -11% to -12% common drop. This highlights that Bitcoin might observe the same sample in September, doubtlessly softening the blow to round $24,000.
The present worth of Bitcoin (BTC) is $25,813, with a 24-hour worth change of -0.99%. Because the main cryptocurrency, Bitcoin instructions a major market cap of $502,654,681,515, securing its place because the primary cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Previously 24 hours, Bitcoin has skilled a buying and selling quantity of $17,603,174,408, making it the second most actively traded cryptocurrency by quantity. This excessive buying and selling quantity signifies sturdy curiosity and exercise inside the Bitcoin market, contributing to its liquidity.
Navigating Bitcoin’s Cyclical Nature
Cowen emphasised that regardless of the uncertainty, the seasonality of Bitcoin and the prevailing downward momentum make a take a look at of the $23,000 degree extremely seemingly within the close to future, presumably in September or October.
Cowen mirrored on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s worth actions in a broader context, stating that it usually alternates between bullish and bearish phases. He confused that in pre-halving years, Bitcoin tends to rise considerably throughout the first half and expertise declines within the latter half. Based on Cowen, this sample is designed to “wreck” each bulls and bears earlier than coming into a interval of sustained development.
He additionally identified that whereas BTC might face challenges within the quick time period, as soon as quantitative easing (QE) returns and the cryptocurrency market sentiment improves, altcoins might regain momentum.
In conclusion, Cowen cautioned his viewers to stay vigilant in September, traditionally a month of purple returns for Bitcoin. He urged warning, citing previous information and market dynamics as indicators of a doubtlessly difficult month forward. Whereas the long run stays unsure, Cowen’s data-driven evaluation serves as a worthwhile useful resource for these navigating the turbulent waters of the cryptocurrency market. Buyers and fans will undoubtedly watch intently to see if Bitcoin’s efficiency aligns together with his predictions within the coming weeks and months.
Featured picture from Pixabay and chart from TradingView.com