Ether (ETH) dropped by over 7.5% in its Bitcoin (BTC) pair in 2023. However ETH/BTC could wipe its year-to-date losses totally in April, as Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai hard fork is simply days away.
The improve is about for April 12, enabling Ethereum stakers to withdraw round 1.1 billion ETH in rewards — price over $2 billion as of April 8.
ETH value undergoes key technical bounce
Many specialists see the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long run. For example, the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin in April.
In consequence, the ETH/BTC pair has risen by about 4.75% month-to-date to achieve 0.066 BTC as of April 8, a virtually 8% rebound since March 20.
The bounce was largely expected, particularly as ETH/BTC dropped to its historical ascending trendline support. Now, the upside move raises the prospects of an extended bullish retracement toward its descending trendline resistance, marked as a “sell zone” in the chart below.
The fractal-based outlook puts Ether on target for 0.075 BTC by June, up 10% versus current price levels. Meanwhile, the pair’s upside target for April appears to be its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave) near 0.069 BTC.
Conversely, a decisive close below the 200-3D EMA (the blue wave) near 0.066 BTC, coinciding support/resistance level near 0.067 BTC, risks delaying or — in the worst case scenario — invalidating the bullish retracement setup.
This bearish argument echoes independent market analyst CrediBULL Crypto who expects strong selling pressure near the 0.067 BTC resistance level that would lead to a 50% drop in 2023.
Ethereum vs. U.S. dollar outlook
The ETH/USD pair has rallied by more than 50% in 2023, primarily due to similar uptrends elsewhere in the crypto market.
A weakening dollar, lower U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot on interest rate hikes have helped cryptocurrencies rise throughout the board in Q1. These catalysts will possible stay within the highlight till Could’s Federal Open Market Committee assembly.
Shanghai bringing the primary greenshoots of #AltcoinSeason ?$ETH is perking as much as an 8 month excessive as we method one week till the Shanghai fork replace @ 10:27:35 PM UTC on the twelfth (Epoch #620,9536)
The rally has principally been a Fed/USD charges story, inflicting BTC to prepared the ground.… pic.twitter.com/dI0bpywR16
— Wealthy Rosenblum (@Rich_GSR) April 4, 2023
In consequence, Ether may maintain its yearly beneficial properties in April, consolidating contained in the $1,800–2,000 vary till the Fed determination.
Furthermore, a decisive breakout at present ranges may lead to prolonged beneficial properties with a second-quarter ETH value target of over $3,000.
However, the bears will try to drag the worth down for an in depth beneath $1,800, with the triangle’s decrease trendline close to $1,600 as its draw back goal.
This text doesn’t include funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.