Bitcoin’s (BTC) value will improve 74.1% within the first 12 months after spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are launched in the USA, in response to estimates from crypto funding agency Galaxy Digital.

In an Oct. 24 weblog post, Galaxy Digital analysis affiliate Charles Yu estimated the whole addressable market dimension for Bitcoin ETFs can be $14.4 trillion within the first 12 months after launch. He obtained the 74% determine by assessing the potential value affect of fund inflows to Bitcoin ETF merchandise utilizing gold ETFs as a baseline.

In line with Yu’s estimates, Bitcoin’s value would improve 6.2% within the first month after an ETF launch earlier than steadily trending downward to a 3.7% month-to-month improve by month 12.

Spot Bitcoin ETF estimated one-year inflows by month and Bitcoin value affect. Supply: Galaxy Digital Analysis

Yu used Bitcoin value information from Sept. 30, however a 74.1% improve in Bitcoin’s present value would see it hit $59,200.

Markus Thielen, head of analysis at digital asset monetary providers agency Matrixport reached the same determine in an Oct. 19 post, estimating Bitcoin might rise to between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF software is accepted.

Yu predicts the U.S. Bitcoin ETFs’ addressable market size to achieve $26.5 trillion within the second 12 months after launch and $39.6 trillion after the third 12 months.

Spot Bitcoin ETF market sizing and influx estimates over the primary three years. Supply: Galaxy Digital Analysis

Associated: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: How it works, its benefits and opportunities

Yu acknowledged a delay or denial of spot Bitcoin ETFs would affect its value prediction.

Nevertheless, he stated the estimates have been nonetheless conservative and didn’t consider “second-order results” from a spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

“Within the near-term, we anticipate different international/worldwide markets to observe the U.S. in approving + providing related Bitcoin ETF choices to a wider inhabitants of buyers,” Yu wrote.

He added “2024 could possibly be an enormous 12 months for Bitcoin” citing ETF inflows, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving and “the chance that charges have peaked or will peak within the close to time period.”

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